气候风险评估与适应路径

CEADs研究：出口行业对我国臭氧污染的多重影响

# 研究背景 大气中的低层臭氧（对流层臭氧）是危害人类健康和生态系统生产力的重要大气污染物。自2013年中国将臭氧纳入国家空气质量监测网以来，臭氧是继PM2.5后的重点治理对象之一。然而，臭氧的化学生成机制较为复杂，涉及氮氧化物（NOx）、非甲烷挥发性有机物（NMVOC）、一氧化碳（CO）等一系列的非线性反应，治理难度较大...

CEADs合作：应付未来新冠疫情，需全球强力联协作

研究简介 未来几年新冠疫情再次流行的可能性极大。因此，从更广泛、更综合的角度优化疫情防控措施和规划新冠疫情常规防控至关重要。本文建立的传染病数学模型，将气候驱动的社区传播变化和人类行动驱动的空间扩散等情况纳入未来新冠肺炎流行与干预方案。研究表明，加强全球合作，针对当地交通和国际旅行迅速采取为期8周...

CEADs研究：全球疫情控制政策对经济影响的评估

2020年6月3日，CEADs团队清华大学关大博教授、上海财经大学王道平博士领衔，清华大学霍婧雯、雷天扬、程丹阳，山东大学（威海）李姝萍、白阳春、薛倩玉，中科院科技战略咨询研究院陈佩佩等多位同学紧密协作，联合中科院数学与系统科学研究院，清华大学，世界银行、美国加州大学尔湾分校、荷兰格罗宁根大学、英国爱丁堡大学...

Global supply-chain effects of COVID-19 control measures

Countries have sought to stop the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by severely restricting travel and in-person commercial activities. Here, we analyse the supply-chain effects of a set of idealized lockdown scenarios, using the latest global trade modelling framework. We find that supply-chain losses that are related to initial COVID-19 lockdowns are largely dependent on the number of countries imposing restrictions and th...

CEADs研究：多区域洪水足迹模型应用-2009年欧洲中部大洪水的经济影响评估

近年来欧洲地区极端水文灾害频发，导致大量经济损失。慕尼黑再保险公司数据显示，2001-2010年欧洲洪水所造成的直接损失相较于上世纪80年代增长了192%，达到同期欧洲GDP的0.03%。由于直接物质资本损毁，淹没地区的经济生产等活动也会受到进一步的干扰。某些部门的产出损失通过产业链上下游传导至其他部门，造成更大范围的产业链...

Flood Footprint Assessment: A Multiregional Case of 2009 Central European Floods

Hydrometeorological phenomena have increased in intensity and frequency in last decades, with Europe as one of the most affected areas. This accounts for considerable economic losses in the region. Regional adaptation strategies for costs minimization require a comprehensive assessment of the disasters ’ economic impacts at a multiple ‐ region scale. This article adapts the flood footprint method for multiple-region assessment of to...

CEADS研究：基于复合型自然灾害的洪水足迹核算方法体系

近年来，复合型自然灾害频发，严重威胁着人类的生命安全和生产活动。复合型自然灾害主要包括两类，一类是多个单独的自然灾害并发，另一类则是某一种自然灾害引发或诱发了后续的灾害事件。全面评估复合型自然灾害在部门和区域尺度产生的经济影响，是城市或地区进行灾后经济恢复和可持续发展的一个重要前提。然而，目前大...

Methodology and application of flood footprint accounting in a hypothetical multiple two-flood event378

Multiple natural disasters are becoming ever more frequent around the world, with both climate change and rapid urbanization increasing the risk of such disasters in human society. Comprehensive analysis of the economic impact of multiple disasters on the industrial and economic system has become an urgent and essential part of urban recovery and sustainable development. However, there is a lack of studies that focus on assessing the in...

Flood footprint assessment: a new approach for flood-induced indirect economic impact measurement and p

Flooding in one location can impact the entire production chain of a regional economy. Neglecting the knock-on costs of this risks ignoring the economic benefits and beneficiaries of flood risk management interventions. However, economic consequence assessments in the existing studies are restricted to direct economic impact as there is not a generally accepted quantitative method to assess indirect economic impacts. This paper presents...

CEADs研究：利用心理物理学方法探究空气污染对主观幸福感的影响

空气污染是一个全球性的环境问题，尤其是在一些快速工业化的发展中国家，严重的空气污染已成为居民健康的重要杀手之一。然而漂浮在空气中的污染物，不仅可以通过呼吸系统进入人体，增加居民患病和死亡风险，并且可以直接通过视觉感知影响人们的心理感受和心情愉悦度，降低人们的主观幸福感。CEADs团队联合国内外多所大学...